美国为什么把中国的崛起视作“威胁”，想尽办法极力阻挠？在中国日报社新时代大讲堂上，英国剑桥大学前高级研究员、中国问题专家马丁·雅克认为，这是一种帝国主义大国的心理在作祟。长久以来，美国拥有压倒性的全球霸权，“美国天下第一”的想法深刻于一些美国人骨子里。因此，面对中国的崛起，美国的反应就是从各个方面极力阻挠和打压。但是，马丁·雅克犀利指出，历史证明，没有哪个国家可以一直做老大。
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马丁·雅克
英国剑桥大学政治与国际关系学院前高级研究员
“新时代大讲堂”
英文演讲
《中国崛起是世界和平及发展的有力保障，而不是威胁》
（略有删节，中文为译文）
中美早期关系为什么还不错？因为美国认为中国会西化
中国从1978年开始的崛起是在一个相对稳定的国际环境中进行的，而这种发展有一个关键因素，就是中美之间相对良性的关系。
China's rise from 1978 took place in a relatively stable international environment. And at the core of this was the relatively benign relationship between the United States and China.
在这一时期，美国对中国的态度是基于两个基本假设。
There were two fundamental assumptions that underpinned America's attitude towards China over this period.
第一个假设是中国在经济上落后太多，几乎没有可能会挑战或威胁到美国在世界范围内的经济优势地位。
The first was that China was so far behind economically, that it was virtually impossible to imagine China becoming an economic challenger or threat to American economic ascendancy in the world.
第二个因素，也是我认为更重要的因素是，美国认为中国在现代化过程中会西化。
And the second factor and I think a more important factor was that the American belief was that as China modernized, it would westernize.
因为美国的态度基本上是，现代化的过程等同于西化的过程。所以美国的假设是中国会渐渐变得像一个西方国家，看起来像美国一样，比如采用西式的政治体制。
Because remember the American attitude fundamentally was that the process of modernization was also a process of westernization. So the American assumption was that over time, China would become increasingly look like a western country, look like the United States have, for example, centrally, a western style political system.
美国想当然地认为，如果中国没有这样发展，那么它的崛起就会走到尽头、碰壁，无法持续。
And the Americans took it for granted that if this didn't happen, then China's rise would come to an end, hit a wall, be unsustainable.
转折发生在2008年金融危机
2008年的西方金融危机打破了美国对中国的这两个假想。转折就从这里开始。这完全出乎意料。
Now, what began to undermine these two American assumptions about China really starts with the financial crisis, Western financial crisis in 2008. This was the beginning of the turning point. Now, this was completely unexpected.
自1931年以来，美国还没有经历过这样的金融危机。在这个时期，美国遇到了大麻烦，西方遇到了大麻烦。
America had not experienced a financial crisis like this since 1931. And America was in big trouble – the West was in big trouble during this period.
说实话，西方一直没有真正从这次危机中恢复过来，经济增长一直疲软，疫情开始之后又是另一番样子。从某种程度来说，西方经济艰难地维持着。
And to be frank, it's never really recovered. Its growth rates are still, until the pandemic which is a different story. To some extent, the Western economy has been on a life support system.
与此同时，中国在这期间的情况完全不同。
Meanwhile, China has been in a completely different situation during this period.
中国当然受到了这次危机的影响，但基本上中国继续以和之前差不多的速度增长。
I mean, China was of course affected by it, but basically China continues to grow at more or less the same rate, as it had before.
到了2014年，根据世界银行的衡量标准，按购买力平价方法计算，中国的国内生产总值赶超美国。这一时期，按年计算，中国在全球经济增长总额当中占三分之一。可以看到，双方的发展出现差异。
And by 2014, extraordinarily, China overtook the United States in terms of GDP, primary purchasing power, according to this measure from the World Bank. China by this time also, on an annual basis, was accounting for one third of global economic growth. So you see, there's a chasm in experience.
还有一些其他方面的问题不能不提，那就是政治。
But there was something else we must add to this picture. And that was, remember, politics.
西方本以为金融危机会在中国发生，但它却在西方发生了。西方本以为政治危机会在中国发生，但它也在西方发生了。
The economic crisis was expected by the West to happen in China - it happened in the West. The political crisis was expected by the West to happen in China - it happened in the West.
不满的声音越来越多，特别是美国和其他地方的传统劳动阶层群体。随之而来的是民粹主义的兴起。这是一个非常重要的时刻，对西方的经济和政治形势产生极大影响。
And you got the rise of growing dissatisfaction, particularly amongst traditional working class people and so on in the States and elsewhere. And the rise of what we came to know, as populism. So this was a really important moment, which began to undermine the situation in the West, both economically and politically.
结果是，西方政府，但不仅仅局限于政府圈，对来自中国的“挑战”，越来越感到焦虑。这个自1972年以来的合作伙伴渐渐被视为一种威胁。
And with the consequence that there was also a growing anxiety in the West, and particularly in governing circles, but not only in governing circles, about the challenge of China, the partner as it were since 1972, was seen increasingly as a threat.
焦虑与日俱增，结果就是对中国的敌意越来越大。最终，对中国的敌意在2016年特朗普当选美国总统后达到了高潮。
There was growing anxiety; there was growing hostility towards China as a result of this. And eventually, of course, this culminates in the election of Trump in 2016, as American president.
美国人为什么不能容忍中国崛起
美国为什么不能容忍中国崛起？为什么它把中国崛起直接解读为中国威胁？
Now, why couldn't America tolerate the rise of China? Why does it immediately translate China's rise into the China threat?
要解答这个问题，我们必须要了解一个帝国主义大国的心理，尤其是美国。
And here, we have to, I think, understand the psychology of an imperial power, and the United States in particular.
美国在一个相当长的历史时期，几个世纪以来，一直保持着一种上升的势头。从1945年开始，他们一直拥有压倒性的全球霸权。
You see, the Americans are extraordinarily over a very long historical period, centuries, have always been on the rise. And since 1945,
