Editor's note: Daryl Guppy is a national board member of the Australia China Business Council. He is the Australian representative with the Silk Road Chambers of International Commerce and an international financial markets technical analysis expert. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
编者按：达里尔·古皮是澳大利亚中国工商业委员会的全国委员。他是丝绸之路国际总商会的澳大利亚代表，也是国际金融市场技术分析专家。本文仅代表作者观点，不代表本台观点。
Following 2008, China gifted the world an economic recovery from the global financial crisis (GFC) by embarking on a massive infrastructure spend. Chinese capital was eagerly sought to keep many Western companies afloat. Some countries have never forgiven China for taking this lead.
2008年全球金融危机之后，中国为世界奉上大礼，通过实施大规模基建投资刺激计划，帮助全球经济从危机中复苏。西方企业纷纷寻求中国资本，从而渡过危机难关。但有些国家并不体谅中国牵头做这件事。
Today, China is gifting its experience with COVID-19, its knowledge, its medical supplies, and its skilled staff to those who need it.
如今，中国再次献上大礼，愿意与世界各国分享抗疫经验，提供医疗物资、派遣有经验的医务人员。
For some, this hand of global co-operation is treated with the same type of suspicion that followed the GFC recovery. This gives rise to three distinct narratives, none of which are favorable to China.
就像某些人对金融危机后中国的经济刺激计划持怀疑态度一样，他们也对这种全球抗疫合作十分怀疑。这种态度催生了三种截然不同的论调，但没有一种对中国有利。
The first narrative blames China for the COVID-19 outbreak. This story is filled with social media distortions that have been accepted as truthful by some world leaders. China's rapid sharing of the COVID-19 genome sequence and other information is conveniently forgotten.
第一种论调认为中国是新冠肺炎疫情的罪魁祸首。社交媒体上充斥着这方面的假消息，部分国家领导人甚至信以为真。关于中国迅速分享新冠病毒基因组序列和其他信息的做法，这些人都选择性地失忆。
This story also implies that China is somehow responsible for the inability of Western governments to plan ahead for an effective health response. Unlike China, they had several months warning, but COVID-19 appears to have caught Italy, Spain, and the United States by surprise.
这种论调还暗示，中国在某种程度上应该对西方政府无法提前制定有效的防疫计划负责。 事实上，这些国家有几个月的预警时间，但是新冠肺炎似乎依然令意大利、西班牙和美国感到措手不及。
The second narrative imagines a nefarious motivation behind China's sharing of staff, medical supplies, and experience. It is painted as a deliberate extension of China's soft power and designed to enhance China's position as a global leader, particularly at the expense of the United States.
第二种论调认为中国提供医务人员、医疗物资和抗疫经验背后的动机不纯。有人认为这是中国在有意扩张软实力，旨在增强中国作为全球领导者的地位，并导致美国利益受损。
Without a doubt, China's soft power will be enhanced by its high level of cooperation with the WHO and its generosity in delivering aid, not just to Europe, but also to third world countries that have inadequate health systems.
毫无疑问，中国与世界卫生组织的高度合作以及慷慨提供援助的行为将增强中国的软实力，中国不仅向欧洲提供援助，还向卫生系统欠发达的第三世界国家提供援助。
This stands in stark contrast to the response from the United States that remains active in continuing sanctions that halt the supply of medical aid and with interfering in countries, such as Venezuela, to achieve political, not health, outcomes.
这与美国的反应形成鲜明对比。美国仍然在积极采取制裁措施，阻止医疗援助供应给委内瑞拉等国家，并干预这些国家的内政，从而实现政治目的而非医疗救治成果。
Whether soft power expansion is the primary motivation of these Chinese measures is a moot point, but it is also clear no country ever gives aid as straight charity.
软实力扩张是否是中国采取这些措施的主要动机仍具争议，但很明显的是，没有哪个国家能像中国一样不计回报地提供对外援助。
There is nothing to stop the United States extending the same helping hand but President Trump's policy of "America First" is a significant factor in precluding offers of assistance.
美国其实也可以出手援助别国，但在特朗普总统的“美国优先”政策之下，美国不可能主动提供对外援助。
Already this narrative has metastasized into a more concerning impact with some countries declaring Chinese investment capital is not welcome to come to the rescue of failing companies.
这种论调已经演变成一种更令人不安的思维方式。一些国家宣称不欢迎中国资本接盘濒临倒闭的公司。
The most explicit of these declarations has been made by Australia, frightened of a repeat of the post-GFC China investment boom that powered the Australian economy for a decade.
在诸多类似声明中，澳大利亚政府的声明最为刺眼，主要是因为担心金融危机后的中国在澳投资热潮重演。而事实上，这股投资热推动澳大利亚经济增长了十年。
Despite this fear, China with just 1.8 percent of foreign investment in Australia in 2018, is the ninth largest foreign investor in Australia, coming after the U.S., UK, Belgium, Japan, and Singapore.
虽然存在这种担忧，但中国仅占2018年外国对澳投资的1.8%，是澳大利亚第九大外国投资者，低于美国、英国、比利时、日本和新加坡。
The increasingly widespread adoption of this narrative presages a change in global investment flows post-COVID-19 and this will impact on the speed and efficiency of economic recovery. Companies will require recapitalization and the choice is either genuine new capital investment, or the so-called helicopter money created by simply speeding up the printing presses.
越来越多人接受这种论调，这预示着疫情过后全球投资流向的变化，也将影响全球经济复苏的速度和效率。疫情过后，许多公司将需要资本重组。而资金来源有两种：要么是真金白银的投资，要么是央行加快印钞速度，搞大水漫灌。
The third narrative rests on the idea that the world has become too dependent upon China. It's claimed the contraction in global trade due to country lockdowns is evidence of this over-dependence on China. This most often relates to the supply of medical equipment and drugs – items which 3M, GlaxoSmithKline and other Western companies were more than happy to outsource to China and then resell at significantly higher prices in their home markets.
第三种论调认为世界变得过于依赖中国。有一种声音称此前中国国内经济停摆导致全球贸易量下降，这便是世界过度依赖中国的证据。这通常与医疗设备和药品的供应有关。3M、葛兰素史克和其他西方公司的常见操作是将生产外包给中国，然后再将产品高价转售至西方市场。
中国驻苏丹大使馆与苏丹政府3月31日在苏丹总理府举办中国驻苏丹大使馆向苏丹捐赠抗疫物资交接仪式（新华社）
True or false, the potential outcome remains the same. Post COVID-19 will see pressure to shift away from made-in-China imports and their replacement with more expensive substitute products. Whilst appearing to assist economic recovery with the development of "new" businesses, the result will be more expensive products that will hamper the speed of recovery.
无论这种观点是对是错，最后的结果可能都一样。疫情过后，各国将面临进口替代压力，减少从中国进口产品，并寻找更昂贵的同类替代产品。虽然这看似通过发展“新”商业来促进经济复苏，但结果将是价格昂贵的产品阻碍经济复苏的速度。
For decades, Western economies have benefited from the deflationary impact of cheaper imported goods from China. The time when this was restricted to handyman tools has been superseded by high end products like medical equipment. The deflationary role in improving business efficiency and productivity cannot be underestimated.
几十年来，西方经济体受益于中国廉价进口品的输入性通缩影响。过去西方国家主要从中国进口手工商品，如今进口品清单已经扩展至医疗设备等高端产品。输入性通缩在提高西方国家商业效率和生产力方面的作用不可低估。
It is foolish to imagine that the world will emerge from this fearful economic hibernation much the same as it was prior to the pandemic. The challenge is to acknowledge the changes and adapt global business models accordingly. Just what shape these will take is unknown but, in some quarters, the anti-globalization narrative is morphing into an anti-China narrative.
这次可怕的经济停摆过后，世界再也无法恢复到疫情大流行之前的状态。当下的挑战是要认识到这种变化，并相应地调整全球商业模式。究竟未来会以何种方式呈现尚不得而知，但是在某些方面，反全球化论调正在演变成反华论调。
Global prosperity rests upon open borders, free trade and a commitment to global cooperation despite any inclination to do otherwise. This requires improved engagement with China, not disengagement.
全球繁荣的关键在于抵御各种逆流，推动边界开放、自由贸易和全球合作。这就需要各国加强对华交往，而不是与中国脱钩。
The pandemic is an opportunity for global leaders to show their true colors. First, in the protection of their citizens in this health crisis; second, in the way they deliver humanitarian support beyond their borders by sharing knowledge; and third, in the way they cooperate to shape the global economic recovery.
疫情是检验领导人能力的试金石。首先，在这场公共卫生危机中是否能保护其人民；第二，他们是否通过分享经验向其他国家提供人道主义援助；第三，他们是否能够合力推动全球经济复苏。
