美国世纪，1941-2020（中英双语）
本文大概2500字，读完共需3分钟
编者按：“一个时代已终结，新的时代已开启。”环球时报英文版3月31日刊发“变局”专栏第31篇，作者中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文认为，全世界不应该轻视这个曾经引领二战后全球发展的伟大国家，但疫情终结了美国世纪，这恐怕没有争议。
可能多数人都没有想到，新冠疫情是美国1941年以来第一次没有全面介入的全球事务。
与1941年美国开始领导世界抗击反法西斯战争截然相反，这次堪称世界大战级别的病毒抗击战争，美国连自身都难保。美国大规模爆发疫情，是在中国、日本、韩国、伊朗、意大利、法国、德国、英国全面受到病毒入侵之后，本应有足够的防御时间。
然而，特朗普政府盲目自信，谎言连篇，错失良机，还不断抱怨与甩锅他国，以至于到3月底美国感染人数就跃升至“世界第一”，本土死亡人数也超过“911事件”，成为美国历史之最。用史蒂芬•沃尔特教授的话说，是“美国能力之死（the death of American Competence）”。
更令人惋惜的是，自称世界领袖的美国，在人类共同灾难面前，非但帮不了他国，也没有任何国家的政府争相去帮助与捐赠美国。这与两个月前最早大规模爆发疫情的中国不同，当时至少53个国家对华实物捐赠，而现在取得抗疫阶段性胜利的中国也向100多个国家提供呼吸机、口罩等捐赠。
我不知道，1941年首次提“美国世纪”的《时代周刊》共同创办人亨利•卢斯（Henry Luce）先生现在会不会着急得从坟墓中跳出来？《时代周刊》会不会此后发一个首页讣告，直接标明：美国世纪（1941-2020）？
其实，许多年来一直存在美国衰落的争辩。我也认为，全世界不应该轻视这个曾经引领二战后全球发展的伟大国家，但疫情终结了美国世纪，这恐怕没有争议。在这一点，我佩服挪威教授、被称为“和平学之父”约翰•加尔通的预测。2009年，他在《美帝国的崩溃》（The fall of the US Empire-And Then What?）一书中说，2020年美帝国崩溃。他在序言中自信地谈道，2000年我就预言美帝国在2025年将会崩溃，但现在我将时间缩短了5年。
加尔通的逻辑令人信服：美帝国的衰亡，一是源于帝国中心的上层建筑无限膨胀、过度剥削与压迫其他国家所至，二是源于社会离心型的发展。最终，美帝国从高高的神龛上被拉下来了。
2200多年、400多位皇帝的中国古代王朝兴衰史通常有四点惨痛的王朝覆灭教训：荒淫无度、穷兵黩武、少主年幼、众叛亲离。美国最近的四位总统执政期的特点，多少也有类似的味道。
克林顿的“莱温斯基性丑闻”暴露了白宫的丑陋；小布什连续发动阿富汗、伊拉克战争，过度军事扩张，导致美国国库空虚，更爆发了2008年国际金融危机；奥巴马试图“改变”，却拙于行政经验不足而荒废八年；特朗普推崇“美国优先”，频频“退出”，导致传统国际体系几乎崩盘。
按理说，美国有全球最优秀的人才吸纳与大学教育体系，全球最多的优秀企业与金融公司、法律人才，却迄今为止耗费了近一年时间，只能在74、78岁的两位老人之间选择一位成为下届总统。更糟糕的是，美国社会的分裂，使得任何国内政策都有近一半的反对者，致使民粹主义、保护主义的政策更能讨好国内，美国最终将从全球帝国沦为区域大国。
美国世纪终结，中国人并不会幸灾乐祸。即便身处疫情险境，特朗普政府并没有忘记打压中国，蓬佩奥国务卿企图在G7、联合国等国际平台的声明中加入“武汉病毒”、“中国病毒”字样，特朗普签署“台北法案”继续插足两岸事务。很明显，中国是濒临死亡的美帝国最惦记的国际对手。
对此，我更愿意致敬前第一夫人米歇尔•奥巴马的一位名言：“当他们堕落时，我们应高尚。”（When they go low, we go high.）中国不愿与美国纠缠，而是全力协调统筹本国疫情防控与经济生产，也力所能及地去帮助那些需要帮助的国家。
如果美国政府恳请中国帮助其抗“疫”，我相信中国会愿意的，正如2008年中美两国团结合作，应对国际金融危机那样。不过，形势已变了。正如美国《外交政策》期刊最新一期的系列主题“后疫情时代的世界”所说，一个时代已终结，新的时代已开启。
COVID-19 blunders signal end of ‘American Century’
The Trump administration was ineptly over-confident. It lied about the pandemic, missed its best chance to contain the virus, and is now trying to blame other countries. Currently, the US leads the world in the number of infected cases, with a total death toll that is greater than that caused by the 9/11 attacks. According to Professor Stephen M. Walt, the pandemic may declare "the death of American competence."
The US is the self-proclaimed leader of the world, but it's sad to see that not one country has rushed to help the US out of its current virus plight. By contrast, when China was in its arduous battle against the virus two months ago, at least 53 countries donated personal protective equipment (PPE), and now as the threat in China abates it has helped more than 80 countries and international organizations, supplying ventilators and PPE. I wonder what Time magazine's founding publisher Henry Luce, who coined the term "American Century," would call on the US to do. Perhaps he would publish a similar cover story, but this time probably an obituary: "American Century (1941-2020)."
There have been debates on the decline of the US for many years. I believe that the US, which led the world's development after WWII, should never be underestimated. Yet it is probably indisputable that the COVID-19 pandemic has brought an end to the "American Century."
The principal founder of peace and conflict studies, Johan Galtung, predicted in his 2009 book The Fall of the US Empire-And Then What? that the US empire will decline and fall by 2020. According to Galtung, the decline and fall of the US is due to its expanding hegemon that has driven the US to exploit and suppress other countries.
The history of ancient China, which witnessed the rise and fall of numerous dynasties, provides a number of bitter lessons: Emperors who overindulged in sensual pleasures, wantonly engaged in military aggression, lacked experience in ruling a country, and were forsaken by allies eventually witnessed the death of their empire. Let's take a look at past four US presidents. The political sex scandal involving Bill Clinton exposed the ugly features of the White House. George W. Bush launched successive wars against Afghanistan and Iraq, which depleted the US treasury and played a role in the 2008 global financial crisis. Barack Obama strived to make changes but achieved little due to insufficient governing experience and a deeply divided congress that was stacked against him. Donald Trump's "America First" doctrine has led his administration to abruptly withdraw from international treaties that have almost cracked the traditional world order.
The fractured US society means that new domestic policy never receives the full support of the American people, giving room to populist and protectionist policies to be seen as acceptable within the country. This is leading the international image of the US to decline from one of a global empire to an inconsequential regional power.
The Chinese people do not take any pleasure in witnessing the end of the American century. Even as the US is ravaged by the pandemic, the Trump administration has not stopped attacking China. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo used racist virus terms to smear China during several international events. Trump signed the so-called Taipei Act into law in direct interference in cross-Straits affairs. Obviously, China is seen as the "competitor" that concerns the declining US empire most.
Former US first lady Michelle Obama once said, "When they go low, we go high." China is unwilling to get entangled with the petty politics of the US. Instead, China is devoted to walking a fine line between controlling the epidemic and resuming economic activities. The country is also ready to provide any help within its capacity to those in need.
China will give the US a hand in fighting the virus if it is asked. The two countries cooperated to cope with the 2008 financial crisis, and they should be working together now. But things have changed. The COVID-19 pandemic will show an unprecedented change that had already begun: a move away from US-centric century.
The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center. His latest book is Great Power's Long March Road.
推荐阅读
中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。
你“在看”我吗？