成锡忠：中国密切关注尼泊尔局势发展

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12月20日，尼泊尔政府举行内阁紧急会议。会上，通过一项由奥利总理提出的有关解散议会的提案，并决定下次大选由2022年提前至2021年举行。当日下午，班达里总统批准政府的这一提案。

奥利总理之所以突然提出解散议会，是因为日前有接近百名尼泊尔共产党议员联名上交一份提案，要求解除奥利的总理职务，转而由尼泊尔共产党另一位领导人普拉昌达接任。

有关解散议会的消息传开后，尼泊尔各反对党领导人强烈反对，尼泊尔政府7位部长集体辞职。

尼泊尔共产党领导人普拉昌达召集中央委员会会议，做出解除奥利党主席职务的决定。在两个共产党合并时，奥利派占优势地位。但到2020年，普拉昌达派在尼共书记处、常委会、中央委员会、议会党团里都占优势地位。目前，在尼泊尔中央委员会委员中，普拉昌达和尼帕尔两派结成的联盟占64%，奥利派仅占36%。

大批反对解散议会的示威者涌上大街小巷，焚烧奥利的画像表达不满。宪法专家说，奥利没有权利解散议会。根据2015年9月20日颁布的新宪法，在议会因支持率不够而无法获得投票通过的情况下，总理才能够提出解散议会。而奥利所在的政党，有接近2/3的多数席位，所以无理由提出解散议会。

目前，尼泊尔最高法院已经收到数份"停止解散议会"的请愿书。专家认为，如果这些请愿书被成功受理，那么最高法院将用两周时间重新权衡"解散议会"这一决定是否合法。

估计未来一段时间，尼泊尔全国各地将出现各种大规模的反奥利游行示威活动，也会有更多的人去最高法院控告总统、总理违宪。最高法院如何做出裁决有待观察。

2017年底全国大选前，尼泊尔共产党（联合主席）和尼泊尔共产党（毛主义中心）宣布合作，共同参加选举。双方在选举中大胜，奥利顺利地在2018年2月就职，成为尼泊尔政府总理。

2018年5月，两党正式宣布合并，成立尼泊尔共产党。根据两位党主席达成的“君子协议”，奥利和普拉昌达轮流分享5年总理任期。

近3年已经过去，奥利不让普拉昌达继位，同时还牢牢地控制党内大权。两人的矛盾越来越深，最近发展到不可调和的地步。有传言称，普拉昌达和原尼共（联合马列）领导人尼帕尔正联合其他势力，在议会发动对奥利的不信任投票，弹劾奥利。

这是执政的尼泊尔共产党党内斗争导致国家出现危机，也是尼泊尔共产党即将分裂的前奏曲。

目前，尼泊尔新冠疫情日渐严重。尼泊尔近3000万人中有约26万人感染新冠病毒。同时，疫情对尼泊尔经济的影响是灾难性的。世界银行的数据显示，受外汇流入减少、贸易和旅游业停滞，以及由疫情引起的更广泛冲击的影响，尼泊尔经济增长率可能由2019年的7.1%降至2020年的1.5%。

尼泊尔曾经历10年内战，2008年宣布废除君主制，建立联邦民主共和国。但多年来，尼泊尔政局始终处于动荡状态，党派争斗激烈，政府更迭频繁，社会秩序混乱，经济发展缓慢，人民生活非常贫困。因此，尼泊尔民众强烈渴望政局继续保持稳定。

我本人曾在尼泊尔工作7年多时间，亲历社会动乱给尼泊尔人民造成的苦难。作为友好邻邦，中国密切关注尼泊尔局势发展，期待尼泊尔政府与有关各方一道，从维护尼泊尔国家团结、社会稳定和人民根本利益出发，通过对话协商自主解决分歧，尽快恢复尼泊尔局势稳定，共同致力于尼泊尔长远发展。

尼泊尔共产党领导人普拉昌达

On December 20, the Nepalese government held an emergency cabinet meeting. At the meeting, a recommendation on dissolving the parliament proposed by Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli was adopted, and it was announced that the next general election would be held earlier. That afternoon, President Bidya Devi Bhandari approved the cabinet's proposal, and according to a statement by the President Office, parliamentary elections will be held on April 30 and May 10 next year.

The reason why Prime Minister Oli suddenly proposed to dissolve the parliament is that nearly 100 members of parliament from Nepal Communist Party recently had submitted a proposal to remove Oli from the post of prime minister and appoint Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda), another leader of Nepal Communist Party, as new prime minister.

After the news of the dissolution of parliament broke, the leaders of the opposition parties in Nepal strongly opposed it, and seven ministers of the Nepalese government resigned collectively.

Prachanda, leader of Nepal Communist Part, called a meeting of the Central Committee and made a decision to remove Oli from his chairmanship. At the time of the merger of the two communist parties, the Oli faction was in a dominant position. However, by 2020, the Prachanda faction has dominant positions in the Secretariat, the Standing Committee, the Central Committee and the parliamentary party group. At present, among the members of the Central Committee, the alliance formed by Prachanda and Madhav Kumar Nepal accounts for 64%, while the Oli faction only accounts for 36%.

A large number of protestors against the dissolution of parliament poured into the streets and burned portraits of Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli to express their dissatisfaction. Constitutional experts say Oli has no right to dissolve the parliament. According to the new constitution promulgated on September 20, 2015, the prime minister can propose to dissolve the parliament only when the parliament cannot get a resolution passed because of insufficient support rate. However, Oli's party, which has nearly two thirds majority, has no reason to propose to dissolve the parliament.

Now, the Supreme Court of Nepal has received several petitions to "stop dissolving parliament". Experts believe that if the petitions are successfully accepted, the Supreme Court of Nepal will take two weeks to weigh the legality of the decision to dissolve parliament.

It is estimated that in the near future, there will be various large-scale anti-Oli demonstrations all over Nepal, and more people will go to the Supreme Court to sue the president and prime minister for unconstitutional acts. How the Supreme Court decides remains to be seen.

On the eve of the national election at the end of 2017, Nepal Communist Party (United Marxism-Leninism) and Nepal Communist Party (Maoist Center) announced their cooperation to participate in the election. The two parties won the election, and Oli took office in February 2018 and became Prime Minister of the Nepalese government.

In May 2018, the two parties officially announced a merger to form Nepal Communist Party. According to a "gentleman agreement", Oli and Prachanda will share the five-year prime minister's term in turn.

Nearly three years have passed, and Oli has not let Prachanda succeed. At the same time, he has firmly grasped the power of the party. The contradiction between the two is getting deeper and deeper, and has recently developed to an irreconcilable point. It is rumored that Prachanda and Madhav Kumar Nepal, a former leader of Nepal Communist Party (United Marxist-Leninist) are making joint efforts to unite with other forces to launch a vote of no confidence against Oli in the parliament.

This is the national crisis caused by the inner party struggle of the ruling Nepal Communist Part, and it is also the prelude to the impending split of the Party.

Nowadays, the novel coronavirus pneumonia is becoming more and more serious in Nepal. About 260,000 out of nearly 30 million people in Nepal are infected with the virus. At the same time, the impact of the pandemic on Nepal's economy is catastrophic. World Bank data shows that Nepal's economic growth rate is likely to drop from 7.1% in 2019 to 1.5% in 2020, affected by reduced foreign exchange inflows, stagnation of trade and tourism, and broader shocks caused by the pandemic.

Nepal experienced a 10-year civil war, announced the abolition of the monarchy in 2008, the establishment of the Federal Democratic Republic. However, for many years, Nepal's political situation has been in a state of turbulence, with fierce partisan struggle, frequent regime change, chaotic social order, slow economic development and poor people's lives. Therefore, the Nepalese people have a strong desire for political stability.

I worked in Nepal for more than seven years, experiencing the suffering of Nepalese people caused by social unrest. As a friendly neighbor, China pays close attention to the development of the situation in Nepal, and expects the Nepalese government to work with all parties concerned to resolve differences independently through dialogue and consultation in order to restore Nepal's stability as soon as possible and work together for the long-term development of Nepal, safeguarding Nepal's national unity, social stability and people's fundamental interests.

责任编辑/郎亚娇徐坤阳

作者：成锡忠，察哈尔学会高级研究员、西南政法大学特聘教授、北京中安华盾咨询服务有限公司常务顾问。

英文来源：South Asian Monitor

中文来源：中华安盾订阅号，2020-12-27

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