原文发表于美国时间2021-2-17
发生了什么事情?
全球风险最高的公司们今年一直在大量出售“垃圾债券”,而投资者照单全收。
这意味着什么?
美联储一直在向美国经济注入流动性以维持经济稳定,此举导致利率降低至超低水平。美联储的这一行为也允许并且鼓励了有风险的公司(即有更高可能无法偿还债券的公司们)向投资者出售所谓的“垃圾债券”,而这些垃圾债券的利率此前通常是最为安全公司债券的利率。
而投资者们可能是难以忍受在相对安全的债券上获得如此低的回报率,似乎更乐于购买垃圾债券。
不仅仅是旧垃圾债券,而是包括风险最高的垃圾债券,今年是自2007年以来最高风险垃圾债券的份额占全部出售垃圾债券比例最高的一年。
为何值得关注?
对于市场而言:实际上是对经济的押注
部分投资者对市场上流通的债券的质量感到不安:毕竟,许多(出售垃圾债券)的公司有很高的破产可能。
其他人则似乎对疫苗成功接种的结果有着更大的信心:他们实质上是在押注经济反弹会出现公司盈利,以及随之而来的公司们偿还投资者的能力的提高。
更大的图景:垃圾债券投资者可能另有所图
为何部分投资者会被(垃圾债券)吸引的原因很容易理解。定期评估公司们偿还债务能力的信用评级机构会将债券的评级降低至更低,如果它们观察到风险越来越大的情况下。
不过以长期眼光看,那些刚刚被降级的公司债券实际上比那些认定为风险略低的公司债券表现更好。
这就是为什么投资者在1月份将创纪录的资金投资到追踪这些“降级的债券”的指数基金ETF上的原因。
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这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Finimize。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致,以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息,不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容,不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买,出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前,您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况,并在必要时寻求专业建议。
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