Yang Rui: The China-US relationship is certainlyone of the most consequential in the world today. But relations are being pushedto the test with the tension over both trade and security. After forty years ofengagement successful diplomatic ties, how will theworld’s two largest economies find common ground to stay on the track of peacefulcoincidence? How should president Trump’s China policy be evaluated. And howshould China’s role head be viewed as a nation enjoy through four decades ofreform and xxx to embrace opening up? To discuss this issue and more, I’m happyto be joint in the first half of the show by XXX, director of center for the studycontemporary China at the University Pennsylvania. And the second half when wecome back would be joint by XXX, senior fellow at the World Policy Institute.That’s our topics, this is Dialogue, I’m Yang Rui.
Yang Rui: Welcome to our Dialogue, professorXXX. Given the uncertainty of the bilateral relationship, no one said it’s aneasy job to redefine or reset the China policy. But what kind of China wouldcome across as a country till study so many years, is it more about the competitionor going back to the right away to the Cold War?
Avery Goldstein: I don’t think the relationshipwill be exactly the way of Cold War between the United States so be. In theworld it’s so different certainly China is different thing so be union was fromthe American viewpoint. But there are some similarities, I think the similaritiesare very toothful. One is that they are some fundamental conflict interest betweenthe two countries in terms of the role in the world, in terms of there areoverlapped interest in the region, these cases would be East Asia as a pose tocentral Europe and also some senses of rivalry in terms of global governorissue, in terms of involving international disputes in third areas. There aredisagreements about the role each country will play. The major differences thereis no longer competition to establish governing ideology for the world. Thatwas between the US and the xxx union. The other major probably most important differenceis the economy. Interaction between US and China which is simply absent fromthe US xxx relationship.
Yang Rui: Avery, two things make Chinadifferent from the formal xxx union. During the Cold War, there was zero tradeinvestment between these two super powers, the xxx people to people exchanges.However, today, what scares Chinese scholars perhaps some of the Americanscholars of international studies xxx xxx. Do you think this is a very bad beginningsomething obvious and indicates something badly for people to people exchanges.Because people like professor Zhu Feng has been very friendly to the UnitedStates, has been very friendly to this value American stand for.
Avery Goldstein: I do think this is a badsituation and I fear make it worse. And the bottom line for me is the reasoningbehind the idea that has visa should be revoked and other scholars are as well.Because if the FBI in fact has evidences that xxx criminal wrong doing, that’sone thing. But it’s period the notion that allowing scholars from China especiallyin non-sensitive area, international relationships, political science, thatsimply going for conferences until unacceptable assets to the American higher educationsystem. To me, that’s inappropriate. So the question really is does the FBI hasany reason to believe that will justify for ground doing this. I see no evidence.And as you say, they seem has slapped in the case of Zhu Fan, someone who is a well-regardedscholar. And to have independent feel, I wouldn’t say xxx America, I would sayhe thinks for himself sometimes that means he points out where he agree withthings US doing, sometimes he points out China’s interests. So that’s what scholarsshould do. They should do that free of political xxx xxx some government are oneither side. And this case was interfered from the United States government withoutany obvious justification. This will be a problem as you said the differencesbetween US-China relationship and US-xxx relationship xxx rather rich networkcan exchange people to people exchanges as well as the economy can reaction. Ithink one of the rest relationship runs now is that long standing concern aboutmilitary security disagreements which goes all the away back 1990, this is nonew. Are now being compounded with concerns that the people to peoplerelationship as well as economic relationship could have security implication.And that’s going to make the relationship much more difficult to manage.
Yang Rui: For xxx history city with lots ofstories on the founded principles, the founded father of United States stoodfor. Do you think this president, this government of United States wouldprobably redefine the US-China relationship at the cause of founding principlesbecause we were talking about the free flow ideas and human resources acrosstraditional bounding of nation states in the agent globalization. Because muchof what government in White House does is called by some Chinese indeedobservers in other parts of world, it attempts the deglobalization. Are we goingback and will the founding principles of the United States be jeopardized as result?
Avery Goldstein: I don’t think the foundingprinciples of the United States will be jeopardized that result the current administrationpolicies. I do think the current administration policies are calling intoquestions, the commitment to open international trading orders and other aspectsof globalization. Of course the push back against globalization is not just theUnited States and to be fear to the Trump’s administration not just about the Trump’sadministration. Hillary Clinton was running for president Xi as well as DonaldTrump indicated they would withdraw from the transpacific partnership agreementwould not push for that. And it’s going to be some adjustment to makeinternational order because xxx happily what would see is uneven, unfear playingfeel internationally. So I think that’s going to continue. But do think this administrationpolicy has been unusually forward leading, disrupting on these issues. Isuspect that whoever becomes the next president whether the new president 2020or 20204, the next president is likely to try to moderate American position. BecauseI think the open international trading order at least in some respects benefitsall major trading partners and it’s a question figuring out how to make the rules,fearing up for everybody to see the interests xxx.
Yang Rui: You usually call rising to the challenges,China grand strategy international security in 2005, would you give yourcomments in this context about what China is, how you define China and how doyou look at the nature of the competition between these two governments?
Avery Goldstein: So I tie these two thingstogether. The ideas that you put in struggle to define global leadership. Ithink these countries face that challenges quite different. The challenge forthe United States are still there, is how to adjust to the world in whichUnited States will not have such a huge xxx in terms of capabilities andtherefore will have to adjust someone to accommodating other countries’ interestin ways didn’t really have to in the past decades especially in the end of theCold War. Think the challenge on the Chinese side, it’s figuring out how toplay a large round along the world stage in the ways it’s not the appear attemptsto replace the United States as a global leader or world dictate to othercountries what they should do. So, in terms of that, book the you mentioned inChina grand strategy, I think since the end of the Cold War, I would argue now it’sbeen a few years more that a decade xxx now. And it affects China has prettyconsistent agenda called the grand strategy whatever you want, which after the ColdWar, China no longer faces the kind of pressing security threats that it did fromfirst the United States later the Soviet Union. That problems were sounded andso China’s leaders of the Communist Party turned these tension to realizingmore than a century of dream of Chinese nationalist which was a test of xxx ofChina bring it back to being a true great power and a prospective society andxxx industrial society. And I think that has been motivated China foreign policysince the 1990s. But it’s gone through three different stages. First, underDeng Xiaoping, he is still actively leading. It was “韬光养晦”, keep a lowprofile, build up China’s capability without roughing other faders. The otherswouldn’t worry China is going to infringe their interest. But by the mid-1990s,I think people were beginning to recognize China xxx and began to worry aboutother roles China would play. So under Jiang Zemin, second period and firstfive years under Hu Jintao, you see China that tries to reassure other countriesthat yes we can just keep a low-profile people know they are arising. Butreassure other countries that China’s rise would be peaceful, that China wouldbe responsible, participant in international affairs and others would need notworry about China growing economy and military capabilities. Then I think inthe last year under Hu Jintao and especially under Jiang Zemin, the approach isdifferent. Because by the second half of Hu Jintao’s term of office, others arebecoming concerned about China what they see of China especially in the east Chinasee and south China sea. And this led to push back the Obama’s administration rebalancethe Asia and later the Trump’s administration’s new national security strategy.But I think with Xi Jinping becomes the leader of the Communist Party andpresident of the country, I think his approaches will still want Chinarejuvenation. But it’s not going to be simply to reassure others because they nowhave concerned we can xxx those concerns. They would not believe any longerthat China’s rise will necessarily peaceful. And so I think China has continuedto try to reassure others. But it’s done a big more. It also try to play a moreactive role through the Belt and Road Initiative and through otherinternational efforts where China is trying to say here the contribution Chinacan make, that’s constructive. That’s not simply China tell people they won’tbe a threat, they will make some contribution to reforming international order.Obviously along like what China’s interest.
Yang Rui: I am the author of Who MisunderstandsChina, probably from the very beginning of China’s massive xxxin the early 1980s, Deng Xiaoping’s leadership, China has been misunderstood Chinawanted to be major power protected by own army. Look at the long continental xxxborders, China really needs to have its military built up. But then when Chinaafter a period of “韬光养晦”, really comes back to the xxx stage with own ideas on modernizationof military build up. We start to scare world and from the very beginning, theChinese argues we have been misunderstood. Do you think misunderstanding isindeed serious danger that threaten to further erode the limited trust if anybetween our two countries?
Avery Goldstein: The problem that identifyinternational relation scholars often label security dilemma. Countries dothink it erodes interest to try to protect the interest. And other countriessee those efforts as potentially threatening. And so, that’s normal, thathappens frequently among countries when they are not allies. But in factmisunderstanding can xxx the security dilemma make it more intensive. I dothink that’s the problem that is faced right now that every action China takes,it believes simply protecting Chinese interests. Tense to be interpreted thatthreatening others by the United States in some countries xxx xxx. That’s notaccuse China everything does, I think there are some clear disagreement aboutwhether China’s activities freedom of regarding navigation, freedom of over flywhat those appropriate whether China positions for example in south China sea issustainable justifiable. But to result those kinds of disagreements, misunderstandings,it would be a lot better to pursue dialogue rather than using military forcesto send signals which is happening right now. Each side doing thing, believingthey can use actions to send messages to identify so the other sides understandthe interest. The problem is both sides sending those kinds of signals by takingactions as well as countries observing what’s being done can misinterpret whatthe meaning is of those actions. And so it’s useful to have dialogue betweenthe two sides try to hash out somebody’s concerns whether it’s a context bilateralnegotiation or multilateral negotiation or in the context of international xxxunder xxx.
