文章来源OBSERVER
原文作者Jon Hartley
翻译Allen小小小小号
As U.S.-China trade talks continue with the March 1 tariff freeze deadline being extended, President Donald Trump is right when he calls China’s trade policy “unfair” because it undermines a reciprocal free trade relationship. Trump should be commended for being the first president in recent history to push for trade reform that could lead to more overall free trade.
随着3月1日关税冻结最后期限的延长,中美贸易谈判仍在继续。美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)称中国的贸易政策“不公平”是正确的,因为它破坏了互惠的自由贸易关系。特朗普应该受到赞扬,因为他是近代史上第一位推动贸易改革的总统,这可能会带来更全面的自由贸易。
While Chinese policymakers are concerned about slowing GDP growth in China, continued Chinese protectionist economic policy is not the answer to helping their own people.
尽管中国政策制定者担心中国GDP增长放缓,但中国持续的保护主义经济政策并不是帮助本国人民的答案。
Free markets have done more than any other system to help lift individuals out of poverty, which is especially true in China. In many respects, the Chinese “Opening Up” reforms—which former Chinese President Deng Xiaoping implemented in China just over 40 years ago to liberalize China‘s agricultural, industrial and financial sectors—were one of the greatest victories in human history for free market capitalism. According to the World Bank, Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms have since helped lift more than 500 million people out of poverty in 40 years and were instrumental in creating the Chinese middle class.
在帮助个人摆脱贫困方面,自由市场发挥的作用比任何其他制度都要大,在中国尤其如此。在许多方面,中国的改革“开放”是人类历史上自由市场资本主义最伟大的胜利之一。40多年前,中国前x国x家主x席邓小平在中国实施了改革开放,使中国的农业、工业和金融领域实现了自由化。根据世界银行(World Bank)的数据,自那以来,邓小平的经济改革在40年内帮助5亿多人摆脱了贫困,并在创造中国中产阶级方面发挥了重要作用。
Around the time China’s economic reforms were first introduced, 81 percent of China’s population was living in poverty (as measured by the percentage of people living on $1.90 USD or less per day in 2011 purchasing price parity terms); whereas in 2012, this number stood at only 6.5 percent. U2 frontman Bono was right when he recently said that “capitalism has taken more people out of poverty than any other ‘ism.'”
在中国首次推行经济改革前后,81%的中国人口生活在贫困中(以2011年购买力平价计算,改开时每天生活在1.9美元或以下的人口比例);而在2012年,这个数字仅为6.5%。U2乐队主唱波诺(Bono)最近说得对:“资本主义让更多的人摆脱了贫困,比任何其他‘主义’都多。”
Today, as China may be on the verge of an economic slowdown, these same free market insights exemplified by Deng Xiaoping’s market reforms in China should be remembered by today’s Chinese trade negotiators.
今天,在中国经济可能即将放缓之际,这些以邓小平的中国市场改革为例的自由市场洞见,应该被今天的中国贸易谈判代表铭记。
China‘s high tariffs, barriers preventing global market access, and intellectual property theft are very substantial anti-growth economic policies which largely work to raise prices on Chinese consumers and lower economic growth globally.
中国的高关税、阻碍全球市场准入的壁垒和知识产权盗窃是非常严重的反增长经济政策,这些政策在很大程度上是为了提高中国消费者所付的价格,降低全球经济增长。
First, with respect to tariffs, Chinese tariffs are demonstrably higher than U.S. tariffs. For instance, a car sold from the U.S. into China has a 25 percent tariff, whereas a car sold from China into the U.S. receives a 2.5 percent tariff. Gains from trade could be made on both country’s parts by moving toward Trump’s “zero tariff” vision.
首先,在关税方面,中国的关税明显高于美国。例如,一辆从美国销售到中国的汽车需要缴纳25%的关税,而一辆从中国销售到美国的汽车需要缴纳2.5%的关税。朝特朗普的“零关税”愿景迈进,两国都能从贸易中获益。
A recent study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics found that a U.S.-China bilateral free-trade agreement would increase Chinese national income by $300 billion, primarily achieved through a boost to foreign direct investment. The study also found that such an agreement would increase U.S. exports by almost $400 billion annually, increase U.S. national income by more than $100 billion annually, and add 1.7 million jobs to the U.S. economy over 10 years.
彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)最近的一项研究发现,美中双边自由贸易协定将使中国的国民收入增加3,000亿美元,这将主要是通过促进外国直接投资实现的。研究还发现,这样的协议将使美国的出口每年增加近4000亿美元,使美国的国民收入每年增加1000多亿美元,并在10年内为美国经济增加170万个就业机会。
Second, regarding market access, China remains essentially completely closed to foreign investment in its education, telecommunications and cultural sectors. China also can place quotas as it pleases on various imports. For instance, in the month of October 2018, China had a complete ban on U.S. soybean imports and instead redirected its domestic soybean demand to be met by imports from Brazil.
第二,在市场准入方面,中国教育、电信、文化等领域基本上完全不对外资开放。中国还可以对各种进口商品随意设置配额。例如,在2018年10月,中国完全禁止从美国进口大豆,转而将国内大豆需求转向从巴西进口.
Finally, with respect to intellectual property theft, a report by the Commission on the Theft of American Intellectual Property estimated that China alone is behind 50 to 80 percent of IP theft cases globally, costing the U.S. economy $300 billion every year and millions of jobs.
最后,关于知识产权盗窃,美国知识产权委员会(Commission on the theft of American intellectual property)的一份报告估计,全球50%至80%的知识产权盗窃案件都是中国造成的,美国经济每年损失3000亿美元,数百万人失业。
That being said, there may be some encouraging signs that China is already moving in a positive direction to adopt further market reforms. China’s President Xi Jinping has signaled that the country is willing to reduce China’s 25 percent tariff on auto imports, and there is evidence that, in recent years, China has increasingly allowed it’s yuan-U.S. dollar exchange rate to become more flexible, according to a recent New York Fed study. Of course, actions speak louder than words, and the U.S. must “trust, but verify,” to use Ronald Reagan’s words, in negotiating with China.
话虽如此,或许有一些令人鼓舞的迹象表明,中国已经朝着积极的方向迈进,准备采取进一步的市场改革。中国最高领导人最近表示,中国愿意降低汽车进口25%的关税。有证据显示,根据纽约联邦储备银行最近的一项研究,近年来,中国越来越多地允许人民币对美元汇率变得灵活。当然,行动胜于空谈,美国在与中国谈判时必须“信任,但要核实”,用罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)的话来说。
While economists like Thomas Piketty have demonstrated that inequality within developed market countries like the U.S. has been increasing, global inequality has been falling since the mid-20th century, largely due to the rising Chinese middle class and China‘s free market reforms instituted by Deng Xiaoping.
虽然托马斯·皮凯蒂(Thomas Piketty)等经济学家已经证明,美国等发达市场国家内部的不平等现象一直在加剧,但自20世纪中期以来,全球不平等现象一直在减少,这在很大程度上是由于中国中产阶级的崛起和邓小平推行的自由市场改革。
For now, we will have to wait to see if Xi Jinping follows his predecessor’s unbelievably successful free market legacy—which significantly reduced poverty and created Chinese middle class prosperity—in promoting further global market access, fewer tariffs and honest efforts to prevent intellectual property theft.
就目前而言,我们将不得不拭目以待,看看中国领导人是否会效仿其前任在促进进一步的全球市场准入、降低关税和防止知识产权盗窃方面取得的令人难以置信的成功——这一成功极大地减少了贫困,创造了中国中产阶级的繁荣。
If more free reciprocal trade comes from the U.S.-China talks, it will not just be a significant victory for Trump and the American people, but also a victory for Xi Jingping and the people of China.
如果有来自美中谈判更多的自由互惠贸易,这不仅是特朗普和美国人民的重大胜利,也是中国领导人和中国人民的胜利。