Maduro maintains legacy of friendship

By John Ross Source:Global Times Published: 2013-4-15 19:48:01

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela's newly-elected president, is aware of walking in the footsteps of a giant of modern Latin American history. The prestige of Hugo Chavez, his predecessor, is matched in that continent only by Fidel Castro and Che Guevara.

Maduro, with whom I have discussed economic policy several times, must therefore necessarily deal with issues facing Venezuela with a different style to his predecessor. This is reflected in his receiving 50.6 percent of the vote in the presidential election compared to 55.1 percent for his predecessor in 2012, with turnout falling from above 80 percent to somewhat below it. But this does not necessarily mean less success.

China should be familiar with this. No subsequent Chinese leader could enjoy the personal position of Mao Zedong or Deng Xiaoping in creating the People's Republic of China, but this did not prevent their successors from achieving further major steps in the national revival of China.

What continuities and changes in Venezuela may be expected with Maduro as president?

Maduro was a long-serving Venezuelan foreign minister charged with delicate discussions with both friendly and hostile governments. But his political origins combine discipline and organization with links with the population. Maduro is famous for being a bus driver and organizing a transport union, but before that, in 1986, he studied in Cuba for a year. Focus and organization, combined with tactical flexibility, all attributes shown in Maduro's career, are in accordance with Cuba's politics.

Maduro is known as an admirer of China. One of the first delegations he met after becoming acting president was from China. He therefore fully understands that relations between Venezuela and China have the potential of a real "win-win."

"Venezuelan characteristics" strongly mark socialism in that country just as much as China has "Chinese characteristics." This affects both style and substance. In style the Latin American character of the presidential election campaign, in which Maduro was highly effective, was very different to the politically diverse styles of either China or Europe. But the key policy choices can be generally understood.

Venezuela and Saudi Arabia have the world's largest oil reserves. Oil will be the core of Venezuela's economy for a prolonged period. The national revival in Venezuela, the reason for Chavez's prestige, came because for the first time the wealth generated by that oil was used for the benefit of the country's population rather than being lodged in foreign banks. The programs of social improvement Chavez launched in health, education, poverty reduction, and housing construction underpinned his popularity.

If Simon Bolivar was Venezuela's first great national hero for securing the country's political independence, Chavez was Venezuela's second historical hero for securing the country's economic independence. This combination of patriotism and social improvement was the core of Chavez's appeal and the tradition Maduro continues.

The oil that is the foundation of Venezuela's wealth creates not only benefits but also specific problems in addition to the normal ones facing a developing economy. The oil industry requires enormous investment but employs relatively few people, resulting in a permanent problem of creating enough jobs. Oil wealth leads to a high exchange rate, creating difficulties for other Venezuelan industries to compete internationally.

Venezuela, as a medium-income developing economy, needs simultaneously to secure the best possible imports for its population, bought with oil income, but also to build up production within its own country. China is therefore an ideal partner.

China's medium technology manufactured exports fit Venezuela's market, while China's large companies have enough resources to invest for production in Venezuela itself. But simultaneously, Venezuela helps China diversify its sources of oil imports, making it less dependent on any one supplier. This is the firm basis of a win-win relationship.

Maduro is aware of this. As foreign minister he dealt personally with relations with China. But he was also concerned with the interrelation of international relations and economic policy.

 At the beginning of the latest phase of the international financial crisis, Chavez jointly charged the economics and foreign ministry with helping analyze this and how Venezuela should respond. Their successful policies helped lay foundations of Chavez's reelection and Maduro's electoral victory.

Maduro's electoral victory is his country's choice, but it means a friend of China remains in Venezuela's presidential palace.

The author is a senior fellow with the Chongyang Institute for Financial studies, Renmin University of China. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



Posted in: Viewpoint

blog comments powered by Disqus